The 2024 NFL season is almost underway, and your finalFantasy Footballdrafts will likely occur over the next 24-48 hours. With that in mind, it's important to catch up -- a cheat sheet if you will -- on all of the Fantasy Football Today team's favorite sleepers for the 2024 season. I caught up with Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings to find out who their top three breakout picks for the 2024 season are -- plus a bonus breakout from Adam Aizer -- and without further ado, let's jump right in:
Jamey's Top-3 Breakouts
Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders
We love quarterbacks who run, and Daniels might be the best running quarterback this season. The rookie from LSU and 2023 Heisman Trophy winner had 135 carries for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns in 12 games last season, and he rushed for 2,019 yards and 21 touchdowns in 26 games for the Tigers. That's 77.6 rushing yards per game, which would be amazing if he does something similar for the Commanders. He's also a solid passer, completing 72.2 percent of his throws at LSU last season for 3,812 yards, 40 touchdowns and four interceptions. Kliff Kingsbury, the new offensive coordinator in Washington, should maximize the potential for Daniels after working well with Murray at the start of his career in Arizona. And Daniels has decent weapons with the Commanders in Terry McLaurin, Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown, Zach Ertz, Ben Sinnot, Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. I plan to draft Daniels as a top-10 quarterback in all leagues.
Ken Walker, RB, Seahawks
The offense in Seattle is expected to improve this season under new coordinator Ryan Grubb, and everyone should benefit, including Walker. While he will once again share playing time with Zach Charbonnet, I'm counting on Walker to flirt with top-10 upside. He's worth drafting in Round 3 in all leagues, and Charbonnet (undisclosed) is hurt heading into Week 1. Walker should continue to get the majority of playing time in Seattle, and he had 10 games last year with at least 15 total touches. In those games, he averaged 16.0 PPR points per game. That was also the case for Walker in 2022 when he averaged 17.1 PPR points per game in 10 outings with at least 15 total touches. He's limited as a receiver (56 receptions on 72 targets in two seasons), but hopefully Grubb will give him more chances to catch the ball. And hopefully the offensive line should improve for Seattle this year. I love the upside for Walker heading into the season, and this should be his best year in the NFL in Year 3.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills
I love the setup for Kincaid this season, and he's one of my favorite breakout candidates. The Bills receiving corps will look entirely different with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone, and that bodes well for Kincaid's outlook. He did well as a rookie in 2023 when he was featured by Josh Allen, which happened mostly when Dawson Knox was out with an injury. Kincaid had 10 games with at least six targets, and he scored at least 12.7 PPR points in six of them. He should continue to be featured by Allen in 2024, and Kincaid should be drafted as a top-five tight end in all leagues. I plan to draft Kincaid as early as Round 5 right after Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride and Mark Andrews come off the board. I wouldn't be surprised if Kincaid finishes as the No. 1 overall Fantasy tight end in all leagues this year.
Dave's Top-3 Breakouts
Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets
Of the 168 targets Wilson saw from everyone butAaron Rodgerslast year, 38 (roughly 22.6%) were deemed uncatchable. That's high, but not totally out of hand. It should shrivel with Rodgers playing. Also, of the 35 wideouts with at least 100 targets last year, Wilson was 23rd in average depth of target (ADOT) with 10.16, a by-product of catching passes from inferior quarterbacks.
Wilson has all the makings of an elite NFL receiver who has already garnered huge target volume -- 8.6 per game as a rookie, 9.9 last year. Marrying him with a really accurate veteran quarterback, even an old one, should accelerate his efficiency and pop his touchdown production (he's scored seven times through two seasons). First-hand reports from camp say Rodgers looks like his old self and Wilson is easily his best receiver, even if they've bickered on the sideline. A lack of a true No. 2 receiver only strengthens the opportunities Wilson should have.
Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks
In 10 games with at least 15 touches last season, Walker averaged 16 PPR points and scored eight times. That sounds pretty good but it was actually a little uneven -- he hit at least 17.9 in five of them and 13.9 or worse in the other five. His numbers were similar in 2022, which does make him a little boom-or-busty.
New playcaller Ryan Grubb has become fond of Walker and even called him a "three-tool guy," suggesting he can be useful on any play as a runner (duh), receiver (ooh), and pass blocker. That's wonderful since it seems apparent that Walker will be asked to run more routes and run outside of the tackles more than he used to. BackupZach Charbonnethas missed parts of training camp and wasn't making inroads on Walker's workload anyway. This seems like a perfect trajectory for Walker to have a monster season.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills
Stefon Diggssaw at least 150 targets in each of his past four seasons with theBillsincluding 160 targets in 2023. Kincaid was second on the team with 91 targets in 16 games last season. Without a clear replacement for Diggs in the Bills lineup, it's easy to buy into Kincaid getting good target volume.
Kincaid is a size/speed matchup option for the Bills, one of a few unique-bodied pass-catchers they have on the roster. He averaged 5.7 targets per game under Joe Brady's playcalling in 2023, though that includes a couple of games where he saw a boost in work withDawson Knoxsidelined. Now it's assumed Kincaid will be in an every-down role, so Knox's presence shouldn't hurt his opportunities. The training camp reports have been glowing for him, though they've also been pretty good for rookieKeon ColemanandKhalil Shakir, so it could be tight between the three of them each week. But the target threshold we look for with tight ends is lower than it is for receivers anyway, and the fact he's in the conversation is very good.
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Heath's Top-3 Breakouts
James Cook, RB, Bills
James Cookaveraged 19.6 touches and 103 yards per game in his final seven games, which came after Ken Dorsey took over theBillsoffense. That's a workhorse workload, but it's also true thatTy Johnson,Latavius Murray, andLeonard Fournetteall combined to average 10 carries per game. In other words, Dorsey just ran a more run-heavy system and there's plenty of room forRay Davisto have a role. I expect that will continue in 2025, and with the loss ofStefon DiggsandGabe Davis, I also expect a big workload in the passing game for Cook. He's still just 24 years old and has averaged five yards per carry and 9.6 yards per catch for his career, both elite marks. He should rank top five in the NFL in total yards, and I expect a touchdown boost, even ifJosh Allencontinues to lead the team in rushing touchdowns.
Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs
Rashee Ricehas re-emerged as my favorite breakout candidate. At this point, it does not appear likely that he will face a suspension in the 2024 season and we have received no indication that he will be placed on the commissioner's exempt list. A potential suspension is still a small concern, which is the only reason I don't have him ranked as a top-12 wide receiver. Patrick Mahomes has raved about Rice's improvement in Year 2 and I expect him to play more snaps than any other Chiefs' pass catcher. He played at least 67% of the snaps in the Chiefs final six games of 2023 and was on pace for 122 catches and 1,468 yards. The arrival ofXavier WorthyandMarquise Brownmay lower those numbers, but they'll also take the top off the defense which will increase Rice's efficiency. Here are my projections for him based on target rate. For what it's worth, he had a 25% target rate in his final seven games last year.
Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals
This one might seem obvious too, butTrey McBrideis my number one tight end and maybe my most rostered player by the time all is said and done. Currently, he's going in Round 5 of CBS ADP, closer toEvan EngramandKyle PittsthanTravis Kelce. I expect McBride andMarvin Harrison Jr. to dominate targets, and I expect a big boost in efficiency for McBride with Harrison drawing so much attention. McBride was on pace for 1,114 yards after he took over forZach Ertzlast year and this was not some flash in a pan. He produced 1,121 yards in 12 games in his final season of college. If he's there in Round 4 he's one of the easiest picks in the draft.
Adam's Favorite Breakout
Zack Moss, RB, Bengals
Joe Mixonwas a Top 12 RB per game in PPR leagues in five of the last six seasons. Mixon accomplished that while averaging 4.2 ypc with a 7.5% explosive run rate in that span. Those numbers are nothing special, and Moss has been as good or better than Mixon if you look at a host of metrics throughout their careers. But this breakout case isn't about whether or not Zack Moss is a better rusher than Joe Mixon. It's about this: You don't have to be a special RB to be a must-start Fantasy option if you play onJoe Burrow'sBengals. This is a great spot for a lead RB, so we just need Moss to stay healthy and get a big enough chunk of the work.
Moss is likely a better pass protector thanChase Brownand is more suited to handle the early down work. Brown will certainly have a role and cut into Moss's workload in ways that Mixon never had to deal with, but that still leaves plenty of touches for Moss to have a true breakout season, finish as a Top 18 RB, and a be steal at his current ADP.
Plus two other breakouts:Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets; George Pickens, WR, Steelers
